Voting started at 8 am; apparently at some polling stations people were lined up to vote. As the day continued, reports of "voting irregularities" started coming in from all directions. This was a surprise to the CEC (state election committee) since it declared the vote would be "free, fair and transparent" from the start, and a surprise to foreign journalists like myself in that we assumed the Bakiev regime had enough time to rig this thing in such a way that elections observers - who are only in country for 3-5 days - wouldn't be able to see them doing it.
In order for a Kyrgyz election to be valid, 50% of all registered voters must cast their ballot. Since only 1/3 of the Kyrgyz population is registered (and some people lost their registration status after voting for the opposition in the 2007 parliamentary campaign), this isn't as infeasible as it sounds. However, the official statement that 40% of all voters had cast by noon seemed to be stretching it, with at least one - as possibly many more - instance of polling stations opening their doors with pre-filled ballot boxes. There were lots of Zombie Voters (my term, and proud of it - citizens who've been dead, often for years, who still manage to vote Bakiev), and an as-yet unconfirmed number of double-voters. One wry joke of the day involved a middle-aged man who voted opposition in 2007, and was complaining that this time he wasn't allowed to vote. Another man suggested, "oh, you voted, maybe more than once, you just didn't know it."
Around this time, 2 of the opposition candidates, including the primary one, Atambaev and Nazaraliev, called a press conference to announce that due to the pervasive and incredibly high number of voter fraud, the election could not possibly be conducted legally, and they were therefore withdrawing their candidacies. Interesting approach on the day of the election, especially since their names of course remained on the ballot, and they continued receiving votes all day. But not many - according to the CEC, Atambaev received only 7% of the official total.
After that "bombshell" the CEC held its own press conference, denying Any election problems and seeming dumbfounded why Atambaev and Nazaraliev would try to discourage voting and blacken the image of their "transparent" election process.
Irregularity reports kept coming in- - from some people. OSCE, OHDIR, NDI, and other western-based agencies were practically knocking down doors with their pages of witness-observed falsifications, ballot trashing, ballot-stuffing, multi-voting, zombie-voting, etc. And that's with less than 200 observers in the entire country. Other orgs, notably the CIS and the SCO were, not surprisingly, congratulating Bakiev and the CEC for one of the best elections they've ever monitored. Like a tobacco-funded health study, these orgs are designed to offset criticism and validate the status quo.
Over the day, the opposition began promising major public protests by night fall when the election tally was announced. In response, several major opposition figures - including the few members of parliament left in the opposition and Atambaev's campaign managers - were arrested from campaign headquarters and taken to jail. This caused some small protest in NE Kyrgyzstan (Atambaev's home region), which was quickly dispersed with non-lethal grenade launchers. Despite the ire and promises of the opposition, this was the biggest protest of the day.
Once the official election results were posted - an astonishing 79% participation giving the incumbent Bakiev 83% of the vote (followed by Atambaev - 7.9%, no-confidence in any candidate - 3.4%, Sariev - 2.9%, Nazaraliev 0.6%, Umetalieva - 0.4%, Moltuev - 0.3%). It should be noted that Moltuev - who has always been an oddly pro-Bakiev "challenger" - immediately congratulated the CEC on such a fair election, having himself earned a total of 8,284 votes nation-wide.
That night, after the results were announced, there was supposed to be an opposition march against the CEC offices. Instead, 20-30 people showed up in a park, acting more sociable than agry, and were later told to go home - protest cancelled.
The next day, the OSCE gave it's official report. While technically only going so far as to say that the Kyrgyz Election "didn't live up to the standards promised by the CEC" and "didn't show the progress we were hoping for," unofficially OSCE staff confided that they were disgusted and even personally offended by what one off-the-record source called "one of the worst elections we've ever monitored."
In an attempt to be constructive, OSCE reports usually don't discuss specific infractions, just a general sense of how their observers felt the day went. But with a little vodka, some observers are known to talk, and the specifics are pretty pathetic. More than anything, it's hard to say to what degree Bakiev cheated this election, and to what degree fear of a later Bakiev repercussion caused people to cheat the election for him. Observers were threatened, physically, if they didn't leave a precint so the numbers could be adjusted. Tallys were simply negated, and the number of votes decided upon at random. Officially, No candidate except Bakiev won a majority in any single polling station - including their home towns. One observer noted this was not true when they left a polling station - which recorded an Atambaev victory. Even though it was a small country station, with fewer than 1,000 total votes, local gov employees considered it too much of a job risk to post their station as officially going to the oppositon - so it was "fixed."
So the elections were not free, fair, or transparent. No surprise there. The tactics involved were more blatant than anyone expected, and the CEC, CIS, and SCO self-righteousness was worn further down the sleeve than anticipated, but the end result was the same.
It took the CEC less than 24 hours to review the (literally) piles of voter fraud eye-witness reports and proclaim the election results valid.
A better (and shorter) take can also be found here:
After the FUBAR that was the US 2000 elections (thanks, Jeb), I don't feel like standing on any high horse when it comes to free-and-fair elections. In fact, I have my suspicions that later historians will trace the ebb of American voting transparency to the introduction of electronic (no paper-trail) voting machines.
But for now, the long path that has taken me through Central Asia this summer is winding to a close, and off to the left I've had a very good view of a collosal "democratic" 24-car pileup. The wreckage is everywhere, and while there were no hollywood-style fireballs, there certainly were a number of serious injuries, obvious wrong-doing, negligence, and virtually no ambulances in sight. This is the view of a semi-informed observer meandering past the "most democratic state in Central Asia" - a title for which it still, unfortunately, qualifies.
And no amount of US $ or US army bases - I'm sorry, transit centers - is going to change the carnage of principals. Quite on the contrary, the "friendship" and "partnership" which Obama has carried over from the Bush admin. only strengthens the status quo and gives credance to this style of overt corruption. Like a drug cartel in the Columbian forest, there is no reason to cloak one's vices, because in this Great Game there are no universal principals or material consequences, only benefits to be handed out to those who maintain power.
And that's a slice of life that is not specific to Former-Soviet, Post-Colonial, Western/Eastern, Islamic, Impoverished, 3rd world, or any other convenient categorization.
And with that, it's time for this little lamb to pack up the Yurt and get moving. The harvest is over; the season is changing, and I'm heading home.
Weber (on the lamb)
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